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For most of us, thinking of high school graduation brings memories of walking across a stage to "Pomp and Circumstance" after four years of work. But for a persistent and overlooked group of students, the picture is different. At each graduation, there are students who take longer than four years to receive their diploma. While we admire their persistence, is it worth the extra effort? Keeping these students in school, and getting them to graduation day, takes a lot of time and effort on everyone's part, and a lot of extra resources from the school district. Little1 is known about late high school graduates' eventual outcomes. If they ultimately receive no benefits from the extra time, a lot of school districts might want to rethink their policies. So is it better to graduate late than never? To answer this question, we compared late graduates to:
In making these comparisons, we asked the following questions:
For the first three comparisons we determined2 whether there are statistically significant differences3 between late graduates and GED recipients—late graduates' next option—and whether there are statistically significant differences between late graduates and dropouts. In order to determine whether the differences are actually associated with students’ graduation status, we then compared late graduates to on-time graduates from similar socioeconomic backgrounds and similar initial achievement levels4. Of the 2.9 million eighth graders in 1988, an estimated 4.6 percent, or approximately 135,000, were late graduates (Table 1). While this may seem like a small group to focus on, keep in mind that some high schools in your district might have a much higher late graduate percentage than the nationwide average. Table 1: High School Graduation Status of the Class of 1992 eight years late
Minority students (black, Hispanic, or American Indian) are significantly more likely to graduate late (10 percent) than their white peers—of whom just 3 percent graduate late (Table 2). Table 2: High School Graduation Status of the Class of 1992 eight years later by race
Students from minority groups aren't the only ones more likely to graduate late, so are students from poorer families. Seven percent of students from families in the bottom 25 percent of socioeconomic status (SES) graduated late, but just 2.4 percent of students from families in the top 25 percent did (Table 3). Students from urban districts (7.1 percent) were also more likely to graduate late than students from suburban (4.2 percent) or rural (3.0 percent) districts (Table 4). Table 3: High School Graduation Status of the Class of 1992 eight years later
Table 4: Urbanicity of the High School's Community by High School Graduation Status
Eighth-graders whose family typically spoke a language other than English at home (language minority students) were almost twice as likely to graduate late as their non-language minority classmates (8.1 percent to 4.2 percent respectively) (Table 5). Table 5: High School Graduation Status of the Class of 1992 eight years later by Language Minority Status
Finally, eighth graders with two or more of the six5 risk factors identified by NCES for dropping out were more likely to graduate late (9.7 percent) than students with no risk factors (2.7 percent) or just one (4.7 percent) (Table 6). Table 6: High School Graduation Status of the Class of 1992 eight years later by risk factors of dropping out
How do late graduates fare after high school?
Do late graduates start or complete college? Late graduates distinguish themselves not so much by enrolling in college, but in completion. While they are no more likely (59 percent) than GED recipients (51 percent) to enroll in college, they are much more likely to go on to obtain either an Associates or Bachelors degree. Late graduates were nearly four times as likely to earn at least an Associates degree (12 percent) than GED recipients (3.2 percent) (Chart 7). (Since there are only a small number6 of dropouts with complete postsecondary transcripts, we will not include them in the rest of our discussion on college performance.) How did late graduates do while attending college? Graduating with a degree is a matter of accumulating enough credits with passing grades. Late graduates were more likely to complete a degree program,
Credits. For instance, late graduates earned, on average, forty-two undergraduate credits, while GED recipients earned thirty-one credits (Chart 8). Although the difference seems to be large, for various technical reasons, it is not statistically significant7. The results are basically the same when examining the number of credits earned at only four-year institutions (Chart 9) or community colleges (Chart 10). Remediation. However, the credit data does not include remedial courses, because such courses don’t count towards college credit. The majority—72 percent—of late graduates enrolled in at least one remedial course (Chart 11). This is significantly more than the GED recipients who enrolled in at least one remedial course (49 percent). At first glance this looks like bad news for late graduates, but it may not be. The higher rate of late graduates
Looking at math and reading remediation rates specifically shows that a greater percentage of late graduates than GED recipients enrolled in remediation in either subject (Charts 12 and 13). (We do not have data for the number of students recommended for remediation.) Grades. Even though late graduates were more likely to earn a college degree than GED recipients, they sometimes did not earn higher grades. Overall, late graduates, on average, earned lower8 GPAs (2.1) than GED recipients (2.4) (Chart 14). However, when comparing GPAs earned at four-year institutions and at community colleges separately, late graduates earned similar GPAs as GED recipients (Charts 15 and 16). Keep in mind, however, that late graduates likely took a greater number of higher-level courses since they earned more credits and were more likely to earn a degree. Even though late graduates earned lower grades in college than GED recipients, they persevered to eventually earn more
Do late graduates get and keep good jobs? High schools prepare students for work as well as college. Since a large number of late graduates go straight into the workforce, evaluating their experience means seeing if they are better able to get and keep good jobs than either GED recipients or dropouts. (All employment data—unless otherwise noted—is from 2000, when most of these students were twenty-six years old.) Our first indicator for late graduates is whether they are actually employed. Eighty-five percent of late graduates are employed, compared to just 77 percent of GED recipients* and 81 percent of dropouts (Chart 17). Furthermore, late graduates are more likely to be employed full-time than GED recipients* (Chart 18). Additionally, research (Wald and Martinez 2003) has shown that high school graduates are not just more likely to be employed; when unemployed, they are so for shorter lengths of time than GED recipients or dropouts.
Not all jobs are created equal, so it is also important to look at job quality. Wages are one measure of quality. On average, late graduates’ wages were essentially the same as GED recipients and dropouts in 1999. Although there was some variation between the groups, the differences are not statistically significant (Chart 19). Keep in mind, however, that because late graduates are more likely to earn at least an Associates degree, as they get older their incomes are likely to grow faster than GED recipients and dropouts (Day and Newburger 2002). While there are no significant differences in annual income between groups, on average, there are differences at the bottom of the income scale. Late graduates are less likely than GED recipients* and dropouts* to earn incomes that fall within the lowest 20 percent. Nearly one in three (29 percent) GED recipients and 39 percent of dropouts earned such low incomes, while just 19 percent of late graduates did so (Chart 20). This is probably due to the fact that fewer GED recipients and dropouts were employed full time. Benefits, which are as crucial as wages, provide a clearer picture of the differences in job quality. Late graduates are significantly better off. Of the late
With health insurance, too, late graduates fare better than GED recipients and dropouts. Seventy-six percent of late graduates have coverage, compared to 66* and 61 percent of GED recipients and dropouts, respectively (Chart 22). When looking specifically at who received health insurance through their employers, half of late graduates did, while 40 percent of GED recipients* and 42 percent of dropouts did so (Chart 23). Interestingly, graduating late does not make much of a difference in job satisfaction. Overall, late graduates are no more satisfied with their jobs than GED recipients and dropouts (Chart 24). More specifically, late graduates are slightly less satisfied with their pay than GED recipients. They are, however, just as satisfied with their benefits, promotion opportunities and job security. Perhaps this is because with their education they want a better job and are just not satisfied with holding an entry-level position in their mid-twenties.
Although late graduates do not earn significantly more money and are no more satisfied with their jobs than GED recipients, late graduates have higher quality jobs. They are more likely to have a job, and one that is more likely to offer retirement and health benefits. Furthermore, the beneficial impact of additional years of education on annual income increases as time goes on, especially after age twenty-six (Day and Newburger 2002), so late graduates may see more of an economic benefit as time goes on. Are late graduates good citizens? Though often overlooked, public education is also intended to prepare students to be good citizens and lead healthy lives. While this quality is hard to quantify, we can look at two distinct actions of many good citizens—voting and community service—and three indictors of a healthy lifestyle. Voting. Where the real difference in voting practices really occurs is in who actually votes. Although late graduates are no more likely to be registered to vote
Community service. High school graduation status has little effect on volunteer work. Even though late graduates were more likely than dropouts to volunteer in their communities, they were no more likely than GED recipients (Chart 27). Health. Here We examined three indicators: Smoking, drinking, and exercising. Late graduates were more likely to be non-smokers than GED recipients and dropouts (Chart 28). There was no difference in drinking habits among the groups (Chart 29). Late graduates exercise more; 82 percent of late graduates exercised at least one or two days a week, compared to 75 percent of GED recipients and 55 percent of dropouts (Chart 30). Just as with college and work outcomes, the data demonstrates once again that students are better off graduating late than never. Late graduates were
Better late than never Overall, late graduates fare much better after high school than their classmates who went on to earn a GED or dropped out. Late graduates are more likely than both groups to earn a college degree, hold a quality job, vote in elections, and live a healthier lifestyle. As a matter of fact, the data is fairly consistent in showing that students’ with higher high school graduation statuses are more successful after high school.
Why do late graduates need more time? Here we look at the differences in the courses students took in eighth grade and high school, and their grades, to determine how academic preparation affects graduation status. Math. When it comes to the rigor of eighth grade math courses, late graduates are no more prepared to move on to high school math than GED recipients or dropouts. They had not taken more rigorous courses than GED recipients or dropouts. At the top of the achievement spectrum, about one-third (34 percent) of late graduates took algebra in eighth grade, which is not significantly more than GED recipients (27 percent), though it is significantly more than dropouts (19 percent) (Chart 31). Late graduates (12 percent) also took remedial math courses at about the same rate as GED recipients and dropouts (14 percent and 16 percent) (Chart 32). In respect to achievement late graduates perform similarly to GED recipients and dropouts. Late graduates are no more likely than GED recipients and dropouts
English. In English, the picture is slightly different. Late graduates (19 percent) are no more likely to have taken remedial English in eighth grade than GED recipients (14 percent) and dropouts (16 percent) (Chart 35). As for achievement, when compared to GED recipients, late graduates are more likely to earn high grades and just as likely to have scored low on standardized tests. When compared to dropouts, however, late graduates are more likely to receive high grades but less likely to score low on standardized tests (Charts 36 and 37). When course-taking, grades, and test scores are viewed together, the data show that late graduates are not substantially more prepared for high school
High school performance. At the eighth grade level, GED recipients, dropouts, and late graduates look similiar. But in high school, late graduates’ performance begins to look different. (Keep in mind that the information in this section was collected in the summer of 1992, immediately after the on-time graduation date. It doesn’t include the courses late graduates took to finish their high school requirements.) Overall, late graduates not surprisingly earned more credits in their first four years of high school in both math and English than GED recipients and dropouts (Charts 38and 39). Of course, most GED recipients and dropouts leave high school within the first year or two. In math, just under half (43 percent) of late graduates fall behind in math early in their high school careers by taking non-academic math courses, if any math at all, in ninth grade (Chart 40). This is similar to the 42 percent of GED recipients but less than
Not only do late graduates earn more credits in high school, they also perform better. For instance, on average, they earn higher GPAs than GED recipients and dropouts. While in high school, late graduates earn a GPA of 1.8, which is significantly higher than the GPAs of GED recipients (1.6) and of dropouts (1.3) (Chart 41). The data does not explain, however, why some students persevere through high school to graduate, while others leave school to get a GED or drop out entirely. Perhaps their higher achievement levels in high school help them persevere both in high school and later in college. How do late graduates compare to similar on-time graduates? Here we compare late graduates and on-time graduates who have similar SES and initial achievement9. On-time graduates, as a group, come from a broad range of socioeconomic backgrounds and achievement levels, while late graduates tend to come from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds and are initially lower achievers. Although on-time graduates’ results are better overall in every category, comparing similar students ensures that the findings are associated only with students’ graduating on-time or late and not SES background or initial achievement levels. Our focus here is on college, job, civic, and health outcomes. It is important, however, to keep in mind that in eighth grade and high school on-time graduates, on average, earn higher grades and take more rigorous courses than late graduates. Furthermore, even after high school, the average on-time graduate is typically more successful than the average late graduate (when comparing similar students). College. Late graduates are less likely10 than similar on-time graduates to receive an Associates or Bachelors degree. Furthermore, on-time graduates earn 34 more11 credits on average and obtain higher grades than late graduates. Work. Late graduates were as likely12 as similar on-time graduates to be employed in 2000 than. However, employed on-time graduates earned significantly13 more income—about $2,400 more in 1999—than late graduates of similar background and skills. This would amount to nearly $100,000 more upon retirement in 40 years if the gap remained constant. Interestingly, late graduates were just as likely14 as on-time graduates to have held a job that offered retirement benefits. However, on-time graduates were more likely15 to be covered by health insurance than late graduates. Similar to college, on-time graduates were only slightly more successful in their work than late graduates. Voting. Late graduates are as likely as similar on-time graduates to have voted16 in a recent election. Community service. There was no significant17 difference in volunteerism and the data shows that late graduates were just as involved in their communities. Health. Similar on-time graduates were more likely18 to be non-smokers. Late graduates were just as likely19 as similar on-time graduates to exercise at least one or two days a week. When we compare all late graduates to all on-time graduates, it is clear on-time graduates are much more successful after high school. However, when we compare students of similar SES and and initial acheivement, the picture is far more mixed. In a perfect world students are better off graduating on-time. But if students do fall behind, they are much better off graduating late than never. The path of a late graduate Little is known about late graduates, and more research needs to be conducted. What we can surmise about the path of the late graduate from this data, however, reveals that they start out in the same group as those who will eventually drop out or receive a GED. We also see that minority students or non-native English speaking students are more likely to graduate late. Students who live in poorer households, attend high schools in urban districts, and have two or more of the risk factors for dropping our are also more like to graduate late. Moreover, late graduates' preparation for high school is close to that of dropouts and GED recipients. In the eighth grade, they were no more prepared to go on to high school math or English. And they fall further behind their on-time classmates in ninth grade, where they mainly take non-academic math courses, if any math course at all. But in high school, the picture shifts slightly. Late graduates start making better grades than those who will eventually drop out or receive a GED. These results align with those Nobel Laureate economist James Heckman found in his research on GED recipients: That GED recipients were more likely to drop out of college (Cameron and Heckman 1993). Heckman also found that GED recipients had cognitive skills similar to high school dropouts. But, compared to students who graduated, GED recipients lacked non-cognitive skills such as thinking ahead, persisting at a task, and adapting to an environment (Heckman and Rubinstein 2001). Finally—perhaps simply due to perseverance—late graduates accumulate significantly more credits than GED recipients or dropouts. The results of late graduates' persistence are striking. As stated earlier, late graduates do markedly better in all arenas than GED recipients or dropouts. And, controlled for SES and achievement level, they come close to on-time graduates' achievement. It's clear once again: The effort to keep students in school pays off. What should school boards do about late graduates? Until recently, NCLB did not give credit to schools for students who earned a high school diploma beyond the traditional four years. (States can now have late graduates counted, however, they must apply.) But given the benefits we've illustrated, shouldn’t high schools be recognized for the time and resources used ensuring that students receive the help they need to earn a high school diploma, whether or not the process takes longer than four years? Accountability systems that only credit schools graduating students on time hold a narrow view of defining success after high school, especially for lower-achieving students. This reticence to recognize late graduates may be due to concern that late graduates aren’t as likely to earn a four-year college degree, and there is some truth in that. However, late graduates do have similar-quality jobs as on-time graduates from similar backgrounds and achievement levels and they display similar citizenship patterns. We have seen that late graduates are more likely to earn a college degree than GED recipients. Throughout high school and into college and the workplace students with higher high school graduation statuses are more and more successful. Of course this means it's best for students to graduate on time. But it also clearly shows that students are better off graduating late than never. What does this mean for school board members?
Why should policymakers give credit to schools for late graduates?
Note: * Indicates difference is at the 90 percent interval instead of 95 percent. Endnotes:
This guide was prepared by Jim Hull, the Center for Public Education's policy analyst. Special thanks to Cliff Adleman, author of Toolbox Revisited, for his insights on calculating high school graduations using the NELS/PETS datasets. Differences and errors, however, in calculating graduation rates are solely those of the author. Special thanks also to Larry Ogle, formerly of the National Center for Education Statistics, and Terrance Moore, of the Ohio Department of Education, for their insights and suggestions. Errors and opinions found within this guide, however, are solely those of the author. Posted: February 11, 2009 ©2009 Center for Public Education |
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