The population of the United States is undergoing rapid and substantial change. As a country, we are growing older and more diverse at the same time. By 2050, if projections hold, we will be a "majority minority society"—a country that no longer has a majority of any one racial or ethnic group. These demographic trends have important implications for school leaders.

An aging population

We are growing older. In 2000, the median age in the United States was 35.3 years of age, up 2.4 years from the 1990 median age of 32.9 years.

Non-Hispanic whites are the oldest group, with a median age of 38.6 years, while Hispanics are the youngest, with a median age of 25.8 years. Blacks had a median age of 30.2 years, and Asians, 32.7 years.

In 2000, only nineteen percent of the Hispanic population was forty-five years or older. More than one-third of all Hispanics are younger than eighteen. Estimates for 2005 are that forty-five percent of children younger than five are members of a racial or ethnic minority.

By 2030, about one in five people would be sixty-five or older. The sixty-five and older population is expected to grow from 12.4 percent in 2000 to 13.0 percent in 2010, to 16.3 percent in 2020, and to19.3 percent in 2030.

Although the population under eighteen will grow, it will constitute a smaller percent of the total population in years to come—dropping from 25.7 percent in 2000 to 23.6 percent in 2030.

Implication

Schools will be depending on financial support from an older, non-Hispanic white population with no school-age children. School leaders will need to develop cogent arguments and communications strategies to convince these voters that supporting public schools is a wise investment in America's future.

A more diverse population

The aging U.S. population is also growing more diverse. Between 1990 and 2000, the total population increased by 13.2 percent (from 248.7 to 281.4 million people), but the nation's Hispanic and Asian populations continued to grow at much faster rates than the population as a whole.

All fifty states saw Hispanic growth, ranging from 393.9 percent in North Carolina to 7.8 percent in Hawaii. Every state also experienced growth in the Asian population, ranging from 174.9 percent in Nevada to 1.3 percent in Hawaii.

These changes are evident in the school arena. In 1970, at the peak of Baby Boomer enrollments, the student population was seventy-nine percent non-Hispanic white, fourteen percent black, one percent Asian and Pacific Islander, and six percent Hispanic. In 2003, in contrast, the elementary and high school population was sixty percent non-Hispanic white, sixteen percent black, four percent Asian and Pacific Islander, and eighteen percent Hispanic.

The growth in minority populations is projected to continue and, ultimately, to transform the face of the country. The nation's Hispanic and Asian populations are projected to triple over the next fifty years, but the non-Hispanic white population would drop to about fifty percent by 2050.

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	2000		2050
Group	Population	Percent of Nation's Total Population	Population	Percent of Nation's Total Population	Increase, 2000-2050
Hispanic	35.6 million	12.6%	102.6 million	24.4%	188%
Asian/Pacific Islander	10.7 million	3.8%	33.4 million	8%	213%
Black	35.8 million	12.7%	61.4 million	14.6%	71%
Non-Hispanic White	195.7 million	69.4%	210.3 million	50.1%	7%

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Implications

• Achievement gaps between white and minority students already exist, and graduation rates for blacks and Hispanics are lower than those for white students. As public schools educate a population increasingly comprised of children of color and Hispanic origin, school leaders will want to take all necessary steps to raise achievement for all groups—ensuring that schools do not grow more separate and unequal.
• Minorities have traditionally been underrepresented in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. With the non-Hispanic white population shrinking and the entry-level workforce increasingly comprising minorities, the nation could face shortages in science and medicine. School leaders will want to encourage minority students to take challenging math and science courses that prepare them for rewarding careers that also meet the nation's needs.

Major regional differences

The demographic changes do not impact all states equally. The nation's population became increasingly concentrated in the West and South between 1950 and 2000. In 2000, more than half the nation's population (54 percent) lived in just 10 states: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey and Georgia.

The fastest-growing states in the 1990s were concentrated in the West, and the ten fastest-growing metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2000 were all in the West and South. Between 1990 and 2000, twelve states (including six in the Northeast) saw their non-Hispanic white populations decline.

States that saw growth in their non-Hispanic white populations saw a higher rate of growth in other populations. For example, thirteen states—all in the South and West—saw double-digit percentage increases in their non-Hispanic white population, but even higher increases in their non-white and Hispanic populations.

These regional trends are projected to continue. Between 2000 and 2030, the population of the United States as a whole will increase by 29.2 percent. The West will grow by 28.9 million, or 45.8 percent, and the South by 43 million, or 42.9 percent. Population in the Midwest, however, will grow only by 6.1 million, or 9.5 percent, and the Northeast population by 4.1 million, or 7.6 percent.

These population shifts will affect school enrollment. Between 2000 and 2010, the Northeast is expected to lose 4.1 percent of its under-eighteen population, and the Midwest, 2.5 percent. During the same period, the South should see an increase of 8.6 percent in its under-eighteen population, and the West, 5.2 percent.

Implication

Since enrollment increases and declines might affect school facility and staffing issues, school leaders will want to have the most accurate information available.

Educators should review their school enrollment trends and compare them with Census data, keeping in mind that the Census tends to undercount minorities and overcount non-Hispanic whites.

For more information

The United States Census Bureau provides a wealth of data, including demographic trends by age, cohort, race, gender, Hispanic origin, and other factors. The Bureau's American FactFinder offers population, housing, economic and geographic data for the nation as a whole and for regions, states, congressional districts, counties, zip codes and census tracts.

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This document was prepared for the Center for Public Education by Ron Crouch with additional editorial contributions from Sally Banks Zakariya. Crouch is director of the Kentucky State Data Center, located at the University of Louisville. Zakariya, a free-lance writer based in Arlington, Virginia, is former editor-in-chief of American School Board Journal and director of publications for the National School Boards Association.

Posted: December 1, 2007
©2007 Center for Public Education