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NCLB Pilot State Growth Model Summaries

Alaska NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades growth is calculated: 4th grade through 9th grade

Year implemented: 2007-08

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status or Growth

Growth calculated for: All non-proficient students in all subgroups.

Years to proficiency: Within 4 years or 10th grade, which ever comes first.

Unable to calculate growth for: Students who were retained, students that do not have scores from the previous year as well as students in Grades 3 and 10.

Annual assessments: Yes, 3rd grade through 10th grade

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Once a student scores below proficiency they have either four years or until 10th grade to reach proficiency, which ever comes first. Assuming a student has the full four years to reach proficiency they must decrease the gap between their initial score and the score to reach proficiency by one-quarter the first year, one-third the second year, one-half the third year and finally be required to reach proficiency in the fourth year. For students that do they are considered to be "on track to become proficient" and will count as proficient for the school and district's AYP determinations.

For example, in Alaska a score of 300 means a student reached proficiency across all grades. So if a student scored a 260 in third grade they would have to score 270 [(300-260)/4=10] in the fourth grade, 280 [(300-270)/3=10] in the fifth grade, and 290 [(300-280)/2)=10] in the sixth grade to be considered 'on track to become proficient" in each of those grades. After four years the student must reach proficiency (score 300) in the 7th grade.

Link to proposal: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/ak/ak1.pdf


Arizona NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency

Data used: Individual student data

Grades growth is calculated: 4th grade through 8th grade

Year implemented: 2006-07

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe Harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: All non-proficient students in all subgroups.

Years to proficiency: Within 3 years or by 8th grade, which ever comes first.

Unable to calculate growth for: Students without a prior year score and high school students as well as students in the 3rd grade. Also some students with serious cognitive disabilities who take alternative assessments.

Annual assessments: Yes, 3rd grade through 8th grade

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Annual growth targets are set for each student each year in both math and reading. The growth target is the amount of improvement the student would have to make to be proficient in three years or by the 8th grade, which ever came first. The growth target is set by subtracting the student's previous year scale score from the scale score that represents proficiency three grades later or 8th grade, which ever came first, and then dividing by the number of remaining grades. A student who makes these growth targets will be considered to be proficient for the purposes of calculated AYP for the school and district.

Link to proposal: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/az/azgmp.doc


Arkansas NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades growth is calculated: 4th grade through 8th grade

Year implemented: 2006-07

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe Harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: All non-proficient students in all subgroups.

Years to proficiency: Within 4 years or by 8th grade, which ever comes first.

Unable to calculate growth for: High school students and students in the 3rd grade as well as students new to the state.

Annual assessments: Yes, 3rd grade through 8th grade

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Establishes growth targets for those students who do not reach proficiency so they are on a trajectory to be proficient in the 8th grade. These growth targets expect larger the first year after the student scores below proficiency than following years. The amount of annual growth required for each student changes from year to year with more gains typically expected in the first year than the latter years.

Link to proposal: http://arkedu.state.ar.us/pdf/growthmod_proposal_021706.pdf


Delaware NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Performance Index: Value Table Approach

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades growth is calculated: 3rd grade through 10th grade

Year implemented: 2006-07

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Growth model is applied after the current status and safe harbor provisions.

Growth calculated for: All students in all subgroups.

Years to proficiency: All students proficient by 2013-14

Unable to calculate growth for: Students without previous years test results.

Annual assessments: 2nd grade through 10th grade

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Awards schools points as they move students towards proficiency. Schools are awarded points as students move up the four achievement levels below their proficiency level. Schools are given more points the more levels a student improves from grade to grade. Students who maintain the same achievement level or drop achievement levels are awarded less or no points on a 300 point scale with 300 points equaling the proficient level. The points for each student are summed and divided by the number of students in the grade to get the school's score for that grade. A score of 300 would mean all students scored at the proficient or above level. Students below the proficiency level are awarded points ranging from zero to 250 depending on which level they scored in the current grade and whether that achievement level changed from the previous year.

Link to proposal: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/de/index.html


Florida NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades Growth is calculated: 4th grade through 10th grade.

Year implemented: 2006-07

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe Harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: Any student with at least two years of state test data

Years to proficiency: Within 3 years

Continue status model only for: 3rd grade students who have not been retained and students new to the state and any other students lacking prior year scores.

Annual assessments: Yes, grades 3 through 10

Vertically scaled: Yes

Vertically aligned: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: A school or district will meet AYP for all students and each subgroup if the percent of students who are proficient or "on track to be proficient" within three years meets or exceeds the state's AYP target (aka annual measurable objectives).

A student below proficiency will count towards the school making AYP if they close the gap between their current score and the score required to be proficient in three years by at least one-third the first yeas and two-third the second year then make AYP the third year. For example, if a third grade student does not reach proficiency the difference between the third grade score and the score at the end of sixth grade is calculated. By the end of the fourth grade if that difference closed by at least one-third (33.3 percent) then that student is considered to be "on track to be proficient." For that student to be "on track to be proficient" in the fifth grade they would have to have closed that difference by two-thirds (66.67 percent) then in sixth grade (year three) and all remaining grades the student must be proficient.

Link to proposal: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/fl/flrevisions2006.doc


Iowa NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model Type: Growth to Proficiency

Data Used: Individual Student Data

Grades Included in Growth Model: 3rd grade through 8th grade and 11th grade (optional for districts).

Year implemented: 2007-08

Determining AYP: Status, Safe Harbor, and Growth

Growth calculated for: Any student with at least two years of state test data

Years to proficiency: Within 3 years

Continue status model only for: Student taking alternate assessments and students who move to another school across district lines as well as students without prior year's test scores.

Annual Assessments: Yes, grades 3 through 8 and 11th grade. (9th and 10th grade assessments are optional for districts)

Vertically Scaled: Yes

Vertically aligned: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: A school or district will meet AYP for all students and each subgroup if the percent of students who are proficient or moves up at least one achievement level for the first time meets or exceeds the state's AYP target (aka annual measurable objectives).

Any non-proficient student whose growth moves them up at least one achievement level is considered to meet their proficient target when calculating AYP. However, students who drop an achievement level one year then return back to the same achievement level are not considered to have met their proficiency targets. Only those students who reached the higher proficiency level for the first time are considered to have met their proficiency target. For example, a student will be considered to have made their proficiency target by moving from the Weak Level in grade 4 to the Lo Marginal level in grade 5 but if that students drops back down to the Weak level in grade 6 and moves back up to the Low Marginal level in grade 7 the student will not be counted as making AYP for either grade 6 or grade 7.

Link to proposal: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/ia/iagmp07.doc


North Carolina NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency: Trajectory Model

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades Growth is calculated: 3rd grade through 8th grade

Year implemented: 2005-06

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe Harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: Any non-proficient student with the necessary pretest scores.

Years to proficiency: 4 years

Continue status model only for: Students lacking pretest score (previous years) and students who took certain alternate assessments.

Annual assessments: Yes, grades 3 Pre-test through grade 8 and high school end of course exams

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Students that fail to reach the proficiency level can be deemed as on-track to-proficiency if they decrease the difference between the test score they failed to reached proficiency and the proficiency score for the test four years later by 25 percent each year. After the four years the students must score at the proficiency level.

For example, if a student fails to score at the proficiency level in the 3rd grade then a "common score" between the difference in their 3rd grade score and the score they need to reach to be proficient in the 7th grade is then computed. The student would then have to achieve a score at least equal to 25 percent of that "common score" on the 4th grade test, 50 percent on the 5th grade test, 75 percent on the 6th grade test and finally reach proficiency on the 7th grade test. For each of the grades the students does so they are counted as proficient when calculating AYP for the school and district.

Link to model: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/nc/index.html


Ohio NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency: Projection Model

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades Growth is calculated: 4th grade through 8th grade

Year implemented: 2007-08

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe Harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: All students in all subgroups.

Years to proficiency: By the grade beyond the configuration of the school in which the student was first tested or within four years, which ever comes first. For example, a third grade student in a K-8 school must be on track for proficiency by the 7th grade but if he/she was in a K-5 school the student would have to be on track by the 6th grade.

Continue status model only for: Students without at least one year of prior test data.

Annual assessments: Yes, grades 3 through 8

Vertically aligned: No

Vertically scaled: No

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Schools that fail to meet AYP under the current status or safe harbor provisions can then attempt to make AYP through the growth model projection. If the percent of students projected to be at or above the proficiency level is equal to or higher than the AYP target set by NCLB then the school is considered to have made AYP.

The projection model predicts individual student growth trajectories based on the student's past performance on all previous state tests in reading, mathematics, science and social studies but growth trajectories are calculated separately for math and reading. Student scoring at or above proficiency whose growth trajectory indicates they will fall below proficiency will not be considered to have AYP. .

Link to proposal: http://www.ode.state.oh.us/GD/Templates/Pages/ODE/ODEDetail.aspx
?page=3&TopicRelationID=130&ContentID=20432&Content=20439


Tennessee NCLB Pilot Growth Model Summary

Model type: Growth to Proficiency

Data used: Individual Student Data

Grades Growth is calculated: 4th grade through 8th grade

Year implemented: 2005-06

Schools/districts can make AYP by: Status, Safe harbor, or Growth

Growth calculated for: All students and subgroups in both math and reading

Years to proficiency: 3 years

Continue status model only for: 3rd grade students, students with no prior state test scores, students who took alternative assessments and high school students.

Annual assessments: Grades 3 through 8 and high school exit exams

Vertically aligned: Yes

Vertically scaled: Yes

Ability to track individual students: Yes

Methodology: Use all of a student's previous test scores to project the student's future test score. The student must be projected to be proficient in 3 years whether they are currently proficient or not. For example, a 4th grader who does not score at the proficiency level but is projected to score at the proficiency level by the 7th grade based on their 3rd and 4th grade scores then that student is counted as proficient for AYP purposes. However, a 4th grade student may not be counted a proficient when calculating the school's AYP even if they scored above the proficiency cut score if they are projected to fall below the proficiency level by the 7th grade. This may happen when the student's scores decreased from 3rd to 4th grade. Hence, the model gives schools credit for all students who are projected to be proficient three years into the future, whether they are currently above or below proficient.

Link to model: http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/tn/tngmp.pdf



This summary is based on a report written by Jim Hull, policy analyst, Center for Public Education.Special thanks to Cyndie Schmeiser and Jeff Allen at ACT, Inc.; Mary Delagardelle and staff at the Iowa School Boards Foundation; and Joseph Montacalvo for their insightful feedback and suggestions. However, the opinions and any errors found within the paper are solely those of the author.

Posted: November 9, 2007

©2007 Center for Public Education


Home > Policies > Measuring student growth: At a glance > NCLB Pilot State Growth Model Summaries

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